At the 2020 Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, Warren Buffett speaks about (transcript) range of outcomes and probability to help assess risk and reward. It’s a matter of figuring out what’s possible versus what’s likely to happen,

But in any event, the range of probabilities on health narrowed down somewhat, I would say the range, the probabilities, or possibilities, and on the economic side are still extraordinarily wide. We do not know exactly what happens when you voluntarily shut down a substantial portion of your society… This is quite an experiment and we may know the answer to most of the questions reasonably soon, but we may not know the answers to some very important questions for many years. So it still has this enormous range of possibilities.